Whether we are talking cars or boats, regular routes have usually become “regular” for a reason. They’re optimized for traffic flow, so when something happens that causes us to have to deviate from these regular paths, it usually results in some sort of inefficiency or delay. When supply ships get detoured, there’s an invisible ripple effect of inefficiencies, especially considering our current system of “just in time” inventory management. The “just in time” approach is all about keeping inventory stock levels low so that the turn around time between buying product and selling it for profit is as short as possible. Sitting on unsold product cost money and nobody wants to be sitting on hundreds of thousands of dollars in product for extended periods of time because sales aren’t going as expected. The downside to this approach is that it relies on frequent, timely resupplies. Just like in your car, detours in shipping routes could mean delays in restocking, which can disrupt the entire supply chain. Detours oftentimes mean longer voyages for the ships, which in turn increases the cost of shipping due to higher fuel consumption and additional labor costs. Of course increased costs are always passed down to consumers in the form of higher prices for goods. Remember during the pandemic when new vehicles were selling well above sticker price?
Another side effect of ship detours is that they can disrupt scheduled docking times at ports, which in turn can delay the offloading and distribution of goods. Simple logistic issues can really screw things up. Remember the situation we experienced in 2021 where almost half a million ships were waiting to enter the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles because pandemic measures slowed down operations and manpower. This is a historical precedent to potential future supply chain issues. Today, people laugh about the toilet paper run of 2021, but that was a great case study. The real danger in many crises is not the crisis itself, but people’s reactions to it. As events like this happen more frequently, and headlines warning of shortages become more common, the public response to potential shortages will evolve, and it won’t be for the better. After the initial wave of panic buying followed by a seeming stabilization of supplies, some people will consider preparation for shortages as overblown or unfounded. This sense of indifference toward supply chain disruptions could prove fatal. Imagine late 2024, after experiencing multiple waves of shortages and crises, people are completely desensitized to shortages, partly due to crisis fatigue. The continuous cycle of crises after crisis has led to a general sense of fatigue and people are tired of reacting to every potential shortage warning. The initial panic and urgency seen in 2021 has have given way to a more resigned acceptance of these kinds of disruptions. People have adapted to the new normal of sporadic shortages. Many simply to seek alternatives when certain products are unavailable until even the alternative becomes scarce, and that’s when people attempt to take what they need from others, or die. It’s the boiling frog effect.
According to a November 2022 publication by the NIH, the world experienced “significant social and political unrest during the pandemic” and their studies showed that individual-level discontent with the political system was related to feelings of “pandemic fatigue.” This “fatigue” varied with level of restrictions and severity of the epidemic but also grew as the pandemic prolonged. It fueled “distrust in the government, conspiracy beliefs, and support for protests.” The NIH goes on to say “our findings raise concerns that the pandemic will further undermine the political stability of Western countries. Furthermore, they highlight the importance of integrating the social sciences into pandemic management in order to buffer fatigue and counteract further increase in political discontent.” Social sciences focus on human society and behavior. Social scientists use this to study how people might react during a crisis based on past behaviors and societal norms. This information is in turn used to inform policy development and communication strategies. The news stories we watch and the headlines we read are carefully tailored with our potential reactions in mind. This is because the government knows that if it doesn’t frame the story the crowd control process will suck when things start to happen.
Here’s another point to keep in mind, notice the media is not talking about the second and third order effects of all of the fires and natural disasters we’ve experienced over the past few years. Not to mention the mysterious fires, explosions, and other crisis that have occurred specifically at farms and food processing facilities. These are line items that nobody is even considering. Just think of all the livestock that have been killed, or had to be killed due to injuries suffered from fire or a storm. Think of all the crops that have been destroyed that would have been used to feed the livestock and people. Think of the cotton crops that made perfect tender for fire, or blew away in a storm. Sure they can just plant new crops, but think about the ship carrying thousands of tons of fertilizer that sank in the Red Sea just last month. How will events like that impact the global food supply?
I’ll leave you with this, as we navigate these current events, don’t let their frequency stress you out, or lull you to sleep. Stay on your square. Heed the lessons in nature and be like the ants and the bees. They fix the roof when the sun is shining. Stock up! That’s what four walls and a roof are for, a place to sleep and stash all your stuff. As you stock up, keep this concept in mind: buy what you use and use what you buy. Once you have a good stash on hand, that methodology will keep you topped off because you’ll use what you have before it expires, and replace it as you use it. For your mental health, you also won’t feel the need to react to every crisis because no matter what happens, the basic necessities of life don’t change. If you’re already staying on top of those, the next sensational headline will merely be a sign that you’re on the right track to keep doing what you’re doing. And if nothing happens, the worst thing that’ll happen is you’ll use what you bought.